This article originally appeared on April 15, 2015 in The Huffington Post

Today, a group of Lebanese from across the world launched an initiative focused on supporting a vital sector for the future of Lebanon that we hear relatively little about: Lebanon’s potential oil and gas industry.

While most of the current news out of the country is of political instability, corruption and incompetence, there is an untold story of hope. There are creative individuals working with absolute determination to tackle Lebanon’s toughest problems. They are inspired by the belief that it is possible to make their country a better place. Their small-scale efforts will lead gradually to larger ones and eventually energize a wider change in Lebanon.

The Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative (LOGI) could potentially be one of such efforts. It is a first of its kind initiative in Lebanon, and its story is one worth being told.

The backstory is that Lebanon could potentially have large oil and gas deposits. While the opportunity could significantly improve Lebanon’s economy and the welfare of Lebanese citizens, high corruption, weak rule of law and limited technical expertise constitute the highest risks to Lebanon’s oil and gas sector. If these risks are not well managed, Lebanese citizens could be left worse off and Lebanon’s economic and social challenges aggravated.

Imagine a Lebanon in the future where oil turned out to be less of a blessing and more of a curse: oil revenues are siphoned away to fund political parties, help them maintain power and undermine democracy; violence and conflict erupt over the ownership of natural resources; and an economy over-reliant on energy exports gets severely impacted by volatile commodity prices … all real life examples witnessed across several countries mismanaging their natural resources.

The timing to proactively address these risks and avoid the resource curse is now! The backbone of the industry is being shaped today and requires our early engagement, before policies are set in motion and contracts locked for decades.

A significant gap witnessed today is the need of an organization that calls for transparency, accountability and sound governance of Lebanon’s petroleum industry.

Beyond that role, given that Lebanon’s petroleum resources are not confirmed yet, there is also an urgent need to prudently manage expectations of Lebanese citizens and government officials. Oil and gas discoveries often trigger an explosion of unrealistic expectations and require a communication strategy that builds a critical mass of citizen understanding through easy to grasp facts.

This is exactly what LOGI is set to do. It strives to inform Lebanese citizens, and influence decision-makers on the key issues facing Lebanon’s oil and gas industry. Its end goal is to help Lebanon maximize the economic and social benefits of its oil and gas wealth, and avoid the resource curse.

If successful, LOGI could play a leading role in creating a system of checks and balances and facilitate coordination across various stakeholders including citizens, civil society, business, government and international organizations.

The talent is out there

There are many Lebanese experts in and outside of Lebanon with a wealth of experience in the oil and gas industry. Some are engineers, geologists, and lawyers. Others are management consultants, economists, and environmentalists. They are scattered far and wide – in countries such as the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Australia. What unites them is their love of their home country, and deep expertise of a sector that could profoundly impact the future of Lebanon.

LOGI aims to create a network of these experts and leverage their knowledge, providing a platform to contribute and help Lebanon develop a healthy oil and gas sector.

If properly financed, governed and connected together these concerned Lebanese citizens, regardless of their location, could have a tangible and real impact on Lebanon.

How can you make a difference?

Many of us ask ourselves similar questions: how can I get involved in solving pressing issues in the World? How do I tap my own potential to drive real change?

Supporting LOGI is one way you can contribute to driving change, in a country that urgently needs it.

You can join LOGI’s network of volunteers, donate, and spread the word.

LOGI is about real people doing real things. Join us in this challenging but exciting journey!

Georges Pierre Sassine is an energy policy expert and co-founder of the Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative (LOGI). He writes about Lebanon’s public policy issues atwww.georgessassine.com.

This article originally appeared on April 15, 2015 in The Huffington Post

Lebanese gains and losses from lower oil prices

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on February 20, 2015, on page 7.

By Georges Pierre Sassine

Stiff challenges stand in the way of successful decentralization

By Georges Pierre Sassine on May 19, 2014.

A version of this article appeared on May 19, 2014 in the online edition and in the June 2014 print edition of Executive Magazine.

In early April, President Michel Sleiman put forward a draft law calling for administrative decentralization in Lebanon. The lengthy proposal, prepared by an expert committee led by former Minister of Interior Ziyad Baroud, calls for shifting some administrative responsibilities and fiscal resources from the central government to regional councils and municipalities.

The move towards decentralization aims to give different sectarian and regional groups some autonomy and the ability to determine their local affairs, and can certainly be seen to have some merit given the current context of a central state inclined to political paralysis.

However, this latest call for decentralization comes at a time when risks of disintegration along ethnic lines are increasing across the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. Several analysts expect the Middle East regional map to be redrawn or radical changes in governance systems including federalism or some version of decentralization.

Lessons from other countries suggest that decentralization cannot be used as a cookie cutter solution across countries and instead much depends on how it is designed and the context it is implemented in.

Three core challenges

In the case of Lebanon, there are three core challenges to its decentralization plans: a fragmented national identity, a weak central authority and inadequate local capabilities to execute. These challenges will have to be addressed by a series of other reforms in order for decentralization to be successful.

The Lebanese decentralization draft law should be part of a more comprehensive strategy that addresses main risks and takes into account the proper timing, pace and sequencing of reforms. Georges Sassine

The first challenge is Lebanon’s weak and fragmented national identity. The hypothesis is that a strong national identity is the glue that keeps decentralized and federalist systems together. In that case, identity clashes along tribal, cultural, geographic and religious lines make a major barrier to the effective implementation of Lebanon’s decentralization reforms and are likely to increase risks of partition.

A strategy to strengthen Lebanese national identity is essential before any plans to decentralize the governance system. This is a long-term process that includes national reconciliation, education and a secular framework that enables interfaith marriages. It is then that a more cohesive Lebanese identity embracing diversity can emerge.

One critical priority is to empower younger Lebanese generations to overcome historical divisions. Unfortunately, Lebanese history textbooks stop in 1943 in order to avoid inflaming old hostilities. Instead of arguing over ‘the one true’ history of modern Lebanon, decision makers can develop a common history book that teaches students the different perspectives in order to enable their critical thinking and avoid repeating the same mistakes.

The second challenge is Lebanon’s weak central state. The hypothesis is that a strong central authority is needed to coordinate and unite local governments otherwise it will be unable to prevent tensions and conflict from arising.

Lebanon today has its executive decision making diluted across the presidency and council of ministers. There is no clear and empowered executive authority, which makes it hard to govern and know who to hold responsible. This is why the most important reform needed in Lebanon is to concentrate executive power in one body that can effectively govern and be held accountable for its successes and failures. It is then, with a stronger central state, that administrative decentralization can bear its promised benefits in Lebanon.

The third challenge is the lack of experienced personnel and inadequate training of local bureaucrats, which would be detrimental to implementing decentralization reform.

Correctly assessing the capabilities of Lebanese municipalities and having a plan to strengthen their competencies is critical. Lebanon’s decentralization reform has to be accompanied by a detailed strategy to attract a skilled and experienced workforce, and train existing public servants to take on their new responsibilities.

In summary, the Lebanese decentralization draft law should not be passed in the current context unless it is part of a more comprehensive strategy that addresses main risks and takes into account the proper timing, pace and sequencing of reforms.

Georges Pierre Sassine is a Lebanese public policy expert. He writes about Lebanon’s public affairs at www.georgessassine.com  

April 20, 2014 – NOW interview with Georges Sassine on the role of US diplomacy in resolving the Lebanon-Israel maritime border dispute, and what the newly formed Lebanese government should focus on to develop the industry.

Original article can be accessed on this link.

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Sectarian violence worsens in Lebanon’s resilient capital.

By Sophie Cousins

This article originally appeared on February 19, 2014 on Al Jazeera English.

Beirut, Lebanon – The Lebanese have long been known for their resilience – their ability to pick up the pieces and carry on with their lives after yet another traumatic event.

This sentiment rings true for Marwan Akil, a coffee shop owner in Lebanon’s capital. Akil was making coffee for a group of customers on February 4 when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a passenger van in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

The blast, which took place during the evening rush hour in the Choueifat district, happened just 20 metres from his coffee shop. “I heard a big noise and suddenly it became so misty,” Akil told Al Jazeera. “I didn’t know what it was. I just heard women screaming and saw so much smoke. There was no body of the suicide bomber – his parts were spread out everywhere across the road and his head actually became detached and hit the fifth floor of an apartment close by.”

Although the blast happened in a Druze neighbourhood, it was adjacent to a heavily Shia Muslim area, from which Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful armed group, draws its base of support. It appeared to be the latest in a string of attacks in the nation’s capital, which has, along with the rest of the country, become drawn into the Syrian civil war next door and polarised along sectarian lines.

Nevertheless, Akil has continued to make coffee at his shop every day since the blast. But customers are far and few between. “No one comes here anymore for coffee because they are afraid. This is not ethical, it is not right. We just want this all to stop. No matter what religion you are, it is not ethical. I wish the Syrian war wouldn’t spill over into Lebanon.”

Increasing sectarianism 

Syrian rebel groups have claimed responsbility for many of the recent bombings in Beirut’s southern suburbs, retaliating against Hezbollah’s armed support for Syria’s government.

But as the tiny Mediterranean country anticipates its next bombing, the larger question at hand is whether each blast is just another point gained in a football match or the beginning of a new civil war.

Benedetta Berti, co-author of Hezbollah and Hamas: A Comparative Study, says Lebanon has been on the brink of large-scale violent conflict for the past few years, but that it has so far been contained.

“I think so far all the main political leaders, including Hezbollah, have showed a clear interest in preventing an escalation, and I am inclined to believe that as long as that remains the case, Lebanon will be able to prevent a new civil war,” she said. “Yet the current situation is very dangerous for the country and it has created a prolonged internal paralysis. I do see things getting worse in terms of polarisation, changing modus operandi and sophistication of the last terrorist attacks, and the economic and social impact of the civil war and the refugee crisis.”

Other experts agree. “The situation will probably get worse until the Syrian crisis ends or a resolution is put into effect,” Sami Atallah, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, told Al Jazeera. “This may take a few months or years, depending also on how the Iranian-US rapprochement evolves and how the different actors like Saudi Arabia and Israel decide to accept this.”

Berti added that while Hezbollah was heavily invested in Syria, the group was still very much devoted to having a strong presence in Lebanon. “The recent attacks have been somewhat of a blow to the group’s reputation of invincibility, and have also increased insecurity within the Shiite community,” she said. “Hezbollah needs to address both issues by securing its communities and being present and visible.”

Syrian refugee impact 

To date, more than 900,000 Syrian refugees are registered or waiting to be registered in Lebanon, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). Every day Lebanon registers 3,000 refugees, spokeswoman Dana Sleiman said, adding that UNHCR predicts there will be 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon by the end of 2014.

The constant flow of refugees into Lebanon has had major economic and social effects on the country. The health and education sectors are struggling, jobs are scarce and housing prices have skyrocketed. According to the World Bank, by the end of 2014, the Syrian war and the influx of refugees will have cost Lebanon $7.5bn in total economic losses.

“This is why the civil war in Syria should be treated as the most urgent regional challenge. In addition to the horrific humanitarian impact, it does have the potential of destabilising the entire Middle East,” Berti said.

Georges Sassine, a US-based Lebanese policy expert, said more action had to be taken to address the issue. “The Syrian refugee crisis has created a sense of fear across Lebanese society, which is partly rooted in the country’s failure to manage the Palestinian refugee crisis,” he said. “The problem is the inability of the Lebanese government to manage the crisis… Lebanese policymakers have so far shown a complete lack of leadership, vision and political will to better manage the flow of Syrian refugees.”

Some Lebanese, though, don’t think any solution exists to the ongoing conflict. “Problems lead to problems. Action leads to reaction. I guess that interference in the Syrian crisis reflects many problems in Lebanon,” said Shawki, a former Lebanese army officer who now works as a taxi driver. “There is a fire outside – let’s go away from that fire and keep it alone. The Syrian war is exaggerating Lebanon’s problems. In my opinion, there is no solution. We are, in a way, too connected to groups of other people such as the Israelis, Palestinians and Syrians.”

But like so many Lebanese who have lived through decades of instability, Shawki is willing to pick up the pieces for a country he loves so much. “Lebanon is very beautiful. In spite of the bad things, you always find the life in Lebanon. It’s an amazing country.”

Source: Al Jazeera

Georges Sassine’s interview on CNN’s Marketplace Middle East. On January 16, 2014 CNN’s Mohammed Jamjoom reports on the ripple effect of the Syrian war on Lebanon.

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By Georges Pierre Sassine

This article originally appeared on December 06, 2013 in The Huffington Post.

Nelson Mandela’s journey should inspire Lebanese to think not only about the type of leader they need but the type of followers they want to be.

 If Lebanon had a thousand Nelson Mandela would people follow them and allow them to lead?

Some people believe that the current political crisis in Lebanon requires a Mandela-inspired leader who transcends religious and party lines. Others argue that Lebanon needs less of a visionary and more of a manager until Syria’s crisis is resolved. Then there are the ones that call for a non-corrupt technocrat that favors meritocracy and builds institutions.

The truth is that none of these matter if Lebanese citizens do not take responsibility and become better followers. Even if Lebanon had a thousand Nelson Mandela would people follow them and allow them to lead?

Leaders cannot function without the support of followers. This is why it is misguiding to only think about leadership and it is important to think about the type of followership required in Lebanon. Better followers produce better leaders.

Barbara Kellerman, a professor at Harvard University, distinguishes five different types of followers: Isolates, Bystanders, Participants, Activists, and Diehards.

While it is hard to accurately assess where the majority of Lebanese fall on the followership spectrum, there is no doubt that the current state of affairs leaves a large portion of the population disappointed, disengaged and isolated; while others are engaged at different levels with or against the status-quo.

Since Lebanon’s civil war in 1975 the contrast between the silent majority versus louder segments of society has been a core determinant of the country’s history. Collective disengagement and pessimism is the source of many of the country’s problems. As Lebanon’s livelihood is at stake today, its survival depends on the type of followership its citizens decide to embrace.

As Kellerman explains, followers are not only important in how they relate to their leaders but also to each other. If you eavesdrop on any conversation between Lebanese you will quickly distinguish between the hopeful optimist brainstorming ideas that end political gridlock, and the naysayer that dismisses all suggestions as idealistic with a laundry list of reasons to challenge it.

 Mobilizing the silent Lebanese majority is more pressing than ever. It is only then that a “Lebanese Mandela” will emerge.

This dynamic among followers is toxic and discourages many citizens to take a more pro-active role. We need a shift in Lebanon from discussing the country’s problems — which everyone know — to debating practical solutions.

It has been widely said that people will get no better government than they deserve. Every Lebanese citizen, regardless of his interest in politics, is in a position of responsibility – especially today when the country is at a critical juncture. This is why every one of us Lebanese has to step back and reflect on our attitude towards new ideas and the future of our country.

Mobilizing the silent Lebanese majority has become more pressing than ever. It is only then that a “Lebanese Mandela” will emerge.

Georges Pierre Sassine is a Harvard Kennedy School alum. He writes about Lebanon’s public policy issues at www.georgessassine.com