This article originally appeared on April 15, 2015 in The Huffington Post

Today, a group of Lebanese from across the world launched an initiative focused on supporting a vital sector for the future of Lebanon that we hear relatively little about: Lebanon’s potential oil and gas industry.

While most of the current news out of the country is of political instability, corruption and incompetence, there is an untold story of hope. There are creative individuals working with absolute determination to tackle Lebanon’s toughest problems. They are inspired by the belief that it is possible to make their country a better place. Their small-scale efforts will lead gradually to larger ones and eventually energize a wider change in Lebanon.

The Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative (LOGI) could potentially be one of such efforts. It is a first of its kind initiative in Lebanon, and its story is one worth being told.

The backstory is that Lebanon could potentially have large oil and gas deposits. While the opportunity could significantly improve Lebanon’s economy and the welfare of Lebanese citizens, high corruption, weak rule of law and limited technical expertise constitute the highest risks to Lebanon’s oil and gas sector. If these risks are not well managed, Lebanese citizens could be left worse off and Lebanon’s economic and social challenges aggravated.

Imagine a Lebanon in the future where oil turned out to be less of a blessing and more of a curse: oil revenues are siphoned away to fund political parties, help them maintain power and undermine democracy; violence and conflict erupt over the ownership of natural resources; and an economy over-reliant on energy exports gets severely impacted by volatile commodity prices … all real life examples witnessed across several countries mismanaging their natural resources.

The timing to proactively address these risks and avoid the resource curse is now! The backbone of the industry is being shaped today and requires our early engagement, before policies are set in motion and contracts locked for decades.

A significant gap witnessed today is the need of an organization that calls for transparency, accountability and sound governance of Lebanon’s petroleum industry.

Beyond that role, given that Lebanon’s petroleum resources are not confirmed yet, there is also an urgent need to prudently manage expectations of Lebanese citizens and government officials. Oil and gas discoveries often trigger an explosion of unrealistic expectations and require a communication strategy that builds a critical mass of citizen understanding through easy to grasp facts.

This is exactly what LOGI is set to do. It strives to inform Lebanese citizens, and influence decision-makers on the key issues facing Lebanon’s oil and gas industry. Its end goal is to help Lebanon maximize the economic and social benefits of its oil and gas wealth, and avoid the resource curse.

If successful, LOGI could play a leading role in creating a system of checks and balances and facilitate coordination across various stakeholders including citizens, civil society, business, government and international organizations.

The talent is out there

There are many Lebanese experts in and outside of Lebanon with a wealth of experience in the oil and gas industry. Some are engineers, geologists, and lawyers. Others are management consultants, economists, and environmentalists. They are scattered far and wide – in countries such as the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Australia. What unites them is their love of their home country, and deep expertise of a sector that could profoundly impact the future of Lebanon.

LOGI aims to create a network of these experts and leverage their knowledge, providing a platform to contribute and help Lebanon develop a healthy oil and gas sector.

If properly financed, governed and connected together these concerned Lebanese citizens, regardless of their location, could have a tangible and real impact on Lebanon.

How can you make a difference?

Many of us ask ourselves similar questions: how can I get involved in solving pressing issues in the World? How do I tap my own potential to drive real change?

Supporting LOGI is one way you can contribute to driving change, in a country that urgently needs it.

You can join LOGI’s network of volunteers, donate, and spread the word.

LOGI is about real people doing real things. Join us in this challenging but exciting journey!

Georges Pierre Sassine is an energy policy expert and co-founder of the Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative (LOGI). He writes about Lebanon’s public policy issues atwww.georgessassine.com.

This article originally appeared on April 15, 2015 in The Huffington Post

By Georges Pierre Sassine

This article originally appeared on December 06, 2013 in The Huffington Post.

Nelson Mandela’s journey should inspire Lebanese to think not only about the type of leader they need but the type of followers they want to be.

 If Lebanon had a thousand Nelson Mandela would people follow them and allow them to lead?

Some people believe that the current political crisis in Lebanon requires a Mandela-inspired leader who transcends religious and party lines. Others argue that Lebanon needs less of a visionary and more of a manager until Syria’s crisis is resolved. Then there are the ones that call for a non-corrupt technocrat that favors meritocracy and builds institutions.

The truth is that none of these matter if Lebanese citizens do not take responsibility and become better followers. Even if Lebanon had a thousand Nelson Mandela would people follow them and allow them to lead?

Leaders cannot function without the support of followers. This is why it is misguiding to only think about leadership and it is important to think about the type of followership required in Lebanon. Better followers produce better leaders.

Barbara Kellerman, a professor at Harvard University, distinguishes five different types of followers: Isolates, Bystanders, Participants, Activists, and Diehards.

While it is hard to accurately assess where the majority of Lebanese fall on the followership spectrum, there is no doubt that the current state of affairs leaves a large portion of the population disappointed, disengaged and isolated; while others are engaged at different levels with or against the status-quo.

Since Lebanon’s civil war in 1975 the contrast between the silent majority versus louder segments of society has been a core determinant of the country’s history. Collective disengagement and pessimism is the source of many of the country’s problems. As Lebanon’s livelihood is at stake today, its survival depends on the type of followership its citizens decide to embrace.

As Kellerman explains, followers are not only important in how they relate to their leaders but also to each other. If you eavesdrop on any conversation between Lebanese you will quickly distinguish between the hopeful optimist brainstorming ideas that end political gridlock, and the naysayer that dismisses all suggestions as idealistic with a laundry list of reasons to challenge it.

 Mobilizing the silent Lebanese majority is more pressing than ever. It is only then that a “Lebanese Mandela” will emerge.

This dynamic among followers is toxic and discourages many citizens to take a more pro-active role. We need a shift in Lebanon from discussing the country’s problems — which everyone know — to debating practical solutions.

It has been widely said that people will get no better government than they deserve. Every Lebanese citizen, regardless of his interest in politics, is in a position of responsibility – especially today when the country is at a critical juncture. This is why every one of us Lebanese has to step back and reflect on our attitude towards new ideas and the future of our country.

Mobilizing the silent Lebanese majority has become more pressing than ever. It is only then that a “Lebanese Mandela” will emerge.

Georges Pierre Sassine is a Harvard Kennedy School alum. He writes about Lebanon’s public policy issues at www.georgessassine.com

By Georges Sassine

Lebanese elections are postponed which means that time is available to rethink electoral reform and better position moderate and independent political candidates.

One of the major issues distorting Lebanon’s political process has been foreign financing of political campaigns. Corruption and vote-buying has become the norm, independent and moderate candidates are out-competed, and the public interest is rarely served.

Taming big money in Lebanese politics can be addressed on two fronts.

The first one is through campaign financing regulations and oversight mechanisms. The goal is to ensure transparent disclosure and monitoring of political finances. Efforts are focused around finding the proper regulation design and more importantly on its implementation and enforcement.

Relative to past Lebanese electoral practices progress is being made on a political finance framework and should be seriously considered in future electoral reform debates.

Crowd funding tools can be game-changing and enable a true independent political movement in Lebanon.Georges Sassine

While pessimists doubt significant progress on that front in the near-term, a second measure could have more immediate results. Crowd funding is changing politics in the United States and it is time it is adopted in Lebanon.

Collecting small donations from Lebanese residents and expatriates through social networks and allowing them to transparently track how their contributions are spent could potentially raise significant amounts of funding. With tens of millions of Lebanese across the globe the potential is enormous. If only 1 percent of the Lebanese community donated just $9 a month for a year, more than ten million dollars could be raised.

Crowd funding tools can be game-changing and enable the formation of a true independent and national movement in Lebanon. It will level the playing field and enable independent candidates to compete for political office. The source of funding will also impact the credibility of candidates, increase voter turnouts, and empower citizens to hold elected officials accountable.

In short, money has changed politics in Lebanon to the worse. Maybe political finance regulations and crowd-funding tools can reverse this trend and money can change politics in Lebanon to the better.

By Georges Pierre Sassine on June 16, 2013

This article originally appeared on June 16, 2013 in The Huffington Post.

Today, June 16, 2013, parliamentary elections were supposed to be held in Lebanon. Instead, after political parties failed to reach an agreement on an electoral law, they were postponed for 17 months under the pretext of avoiding a political vacuum.

Lebanese decision makers favored a fake sense of stability over democracy. The current “wait and see” policy until a Syria resolution is reached will only exacerbate Lebanon’s fragile position. The inflow of refugees to Lebanon will increase, economic conditions will worsen, the security landscape will deteriorate, and political gridlock will persist.

This is why it is urgent that Lebanese, leaders and citizens, actively think of ways to shield Lebanon from the Syrian crisis.

The future of Lebanon depends on the ability of Lebanese to compromise and reach an agreement to safeguard the country during this critical phase.

There are three ways to enable compromise and build consensus in Lebanon.

The first option is a foreign-brokered compromise. Foreign countries, such as the United States, France, Saudi Arabia or others could sponsor an agreement around elections and stability. This would be similar to the foreign backed 1989 Taef Agreement, which ended the fifteen year Lebanese civil war, and the 2008 Doha Agreement, which ended an eighteen month political crisis.

Unfortunately, Lebanon’s stability does not seem to be a top priority for international powers. They seem to tie Lebanon’s future directly to the success of their resolution efforts in Syria. In this circumstance, enlisting the help of foreign mediators will require local politicians to actively pursue diplomatic channels and plead their help to shield Lebanon from regional developments.

Geopolitics and external forces are key determinants of internal Lebanese dynamics. However, there are domestic driving factors that should not be underestimated.

The second option is a grass-root driven compromise. Imagine a true national public movement pressuring politicians to come together. It would be a grass-root, all citizens-included movement forcing the political class to bridge party and sectarian lines and meet their responsibility to protect Lebanon. Lebanese citizens who traditionally have taken on the role of followers have the opportunity to be leaders and shape a new political narrative.

Citizens and civil society will need to mobilize, organize and break from traditional political patterns. They should shift the Lebanese political debate from the anti-Assad March 14 coalition versus the pro-Assad March 8 coalition to a choice between conflict and stability; auto-destruction and survival.

The third option is a voluntary national reconciliation approach. The national dialogue roundtable called by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati could provide the right platform for such an initiative. But in order for it to succeed and avoid the failure of the dozens of national roundtables Lebanon witnessed in the past eight years there is merit in considering new methods to facilitate dialogue.

According to Donna Hicks, a conflict-resolution specialist at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, the biggest barrier to resolving conflicts is anchored in an emotional undercurrent to any political conversation that is so powerful it derails all productive solutions. Each party considers its dignity violated by others which hijacks most political dialogues.

In the Lebanese context, the Christian community feels marginalized. Shiites have long felt neglected during Lebanon’s civil war and Israel’s occupation of the South of Lebanon. The Sunni community has been feeling targeted since the assassination of several of its leaders starting in 2005. And the list goes on, and the nuances are stark amongst political parties and individuals.

All Lebanese factions need to move away from auto-victimization tendencies and self-centered points of views and take into account the perspective of others.

This is why incorporating Donna Hick’s approach to dignity should be a preliminary requirement to the national dialogue roundtable called by Najib Mikati. It involves Muslims and Christians, March 14 and March 8, old and new rivals to start acknowledging their respective mistakes towards each other and genuinely commit to mutual change.

While idealistic and unlikely to some, this remains a realistic option to achieve a productive outcome out of the national dialogue roundtable.

In summary, a foreign-brokered agreement, a grass-root movement calling for compromise, and a national dialogue roundtable facilitated by effective conflict resolution methods are all suggestions that hopefully provoke a constructive debate on how to protect Lebanon from the conflict in Syria and the wider region. A strategy pursuing all three paths at once may be Lebanon’s best bet.

Responsibility for change in Lebanon lies first and foremost in the hands of its citizens and politicians. Now is the opportunity for Lebanese to pursue their collective interest and set an example to the rest of the Arab world.

Georges Pierre Sassine is a Harvard Kennedy School alumnus. He is a political activist and writes about Lebanon’s public policy issues at www.georgessassine.com.

Link to the original Huffington Post article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/georges-pierre-sassine/lebanon-syria-war_b_3443457.html

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By Georges Sassine

In order for Lebanon to create jobs and grow its economy, policy makers should identify the sectors and industries that will have the highest impact on Lebanon’s economy.

One way to go about this analysis is to compare potential industries along three variables:

1. The first is the industry’s potential contribution to Lebanon’s economy.
2. The second factor to consider is how easily these industries can be developed. This includes capital investment requirements; the need for new policies and regulations; and the availability of local talent and infrastructure to develop these industries.
3. The third factor is the number of new jobs created by industry. Some sectors are more labor intensive than others, which is an important element to consider.

I attempt to map different industries Lebanon can further develop along these three variables considering both quantitative and qualitative measures.

Please help me refine this analysis with additional insight and data you may have.

A summary of key findings include:

IT & Media industry

● Description: Hardware and software; cyber security; new and traditional media.
● Economic impact: Arab World online platform ~$1B by 2016 and 276 percent growth; recent studies estimate that when Internet penetration rises by 10 percent in emerging economies, it correlates with an incremental GDP increase of one to two percent.
● Ease of implementation: Talent available; established Media industry
● Jobs created: high level skills required.
● Enablers: Infrastructure; remove red tape; VC funding and support.

Tourism

● Description: Healthcare tourism; and others.
● Economic impact: Healthcare tourism market ~$1.2B; 30% growth potential.
● Ease of implementation: available talent; facilities need upgrading.
● Jobs created: labor intensive.
● Enablers: Investments; infrastructure; remove red tape.

Agriculture

● Description: Traditional agriculture; new/added Value agriculture.
● Economic impact: Exposure to large MENA market; today 80% of Lebanon’s food consumption is imported costing $1.5 Billion per year.
● Ease of implementation: Moderate climate and rich soil; underinvestment in Lebanon’s agriculture sector; low political support.
● Jobs created: labor intensive.
● Enablers: Agricultural policies; investments; infrastructure.

Oil and Gas

● Description: O&G production; LNG, refining & exports.
● Economic impact: Uncertain yet, but neighboring country’s offshore finds ~$80 Billion by 2040.
● Ease of implementation: Limited domestic expertise; high investment requirements.
● Jobs created: the oil and gas industry is a capital intensive industry rather than being labor intensive.
● Enablers: Regulations and governance; transparency; investments.

Manufacturing

● Description: Machinery; food & beverages; pharmaceuticals.
● Economic impact: Lebanon exports a large number of sophisticated products but they constitute only 2 percent of total Lebanese exports. A focus on increasing added value exports could significantly increase Lebanon’s manufacturing industry contribution.
● Ease of implementation: low political support.
● Jobs created: labor intensive.
● Enablers: Industrial policies; infrastructure; financing.

By Georges Sassine

Lebanon needs to fight persistent and widespread corruption in order to restore the trust of Lebanese citizens and foreign investors.

One approach is for Lebanon to draw from the experience of other countries, including Tunisia. And a specific example is a new anti-corruption website recently launched by the Tunisian government, which Lebanon can imitate.

The Tunisian “Anticorruption-Idara” website allows any citizen or public employee to report cases of corruption by filing a form online. The identity of the informer remains confidential and anonymous.

Tunisian officials set up this initiative to counteract corruption, nepotism, cronyism, and other forms of injustice in their country’s public sector.

However, three specific issues are raised regarding this website. First of all, the Tunisian site was only published in Arabic, which excludes non-Arabic speaking entrepreneurs and investors. To be effective, Lebanon should then consider a multilingual anti-corruption website.

The second issue is around the credibility of the reports. Given the anonymity of these claims, this tool can easily be used to launch false accusations against individuals. An effective verification mechanism will then be needed if such a website is used in Lebanon.

The third issue that is raised is the amount of resources required to monitor, verify, and implement such an initiative. While the idea of a website sounds simple, it could require significant financial and human resources to carry it through. This is why Lebanon would need to better understand the requirements to launch a successful anti-corruption platform.

In your opinion, is this initiative worth considering for Lebanon? And how should it be designed and implemented to help reduce corruption in our country?

A short video by Lebanese artist Maya Zankoul explaining the definition of Inflation, CPI, and how it should be measured in Lebanon.

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By Georges Sassine

The majority of Lebanese residents are younger than 29 years old. The new generation of Lebanese has the responsibility to take a more active role in shaping its own future and the future of Lebanon.

Young Lebanese men and women should lead and be significantly more active in civil society, public service, and politics. We can only count on ourselves to voice our ambitions and our vision for Lebanon.